The claim by B.C. Green Party leader Andrew Weaver that his party could take credit for two key NDP campaign promises not being included in last week’s budget “update” provides yet another glimpse into the evolving nature of this province’s ruling alliance. Weaver bluntly claimed that the fact there was no sign of the $10-a-day-daycare pledge or of the promised $400 renters’ “rebate” in the NDP’s first stab at a financial plan was purely because the Greens oppose both measures.
But that claim conveniently masks a fact closer to the truth: the NDP government simply can’t afford to pay for these two programs unless it wants to break another key campaign promise: to deliver balanced budgets each and every year.
That the NDP let Weaver get away with such lofty rhetorical claims was telling.
Giving the impression that he had some impact on the budget conveniently assists building a narrative both the NDP and the Greens favour: that minority governments “work” and are not in danger of always falling apart. Both parties want to leave this impression as many times as possible because both think it will gradually bolster the case for changing to a voting system that uses some sort of proportional representation, which would likely ensure minority governments will become the rule rather than the exception.
The referendum on electoral reform is slated to take place next fall, and both parties need to show lots of examples of how a change to proportional representation may be for the better. It’s likely going to be a tough referendum to win in the first place, so pro-reformers need all the help they can get.
NDP finance minister Carole James insisted to reporters after her budget presentation that she was still committed to eventually implementing both the daycare and rebate pledges (although it took reporters a number of questions to get a firm commitment from her), but it’s hard to see how she’s going to do that unless government revenues increase significantly.
The NDP’s own campaign platform document spell out the hefty costs of both programs. The daycare plan would have cost $175 million for the rest of this year alone as it would have begun to be implemented. That cost would rise to $280 million next fiscal year and a whopping $400 million the following year (the Greens are actually proposing an even more expensive scheme when it comes to daycare funding).
The renter’s scheme is pegged at $135 million this year and $265 million next year. (Weaver thinks the policy is simply a “dumb” one that was written on the back of the proverbial envelope during the election campaign.)
James is projecting a modest $228 million surplus next year (and just $257 million the following year), but using the NDP’s own math shows that would be more than wiped out by the costs of these two programs. Combined, they come in at $545 million next year and $665 million the following year.
The programs would wipe out that projected surpluses plus the $300 million forecast allowance as well. And this doesn’t even factor in all kinds of other NDP spending increases on the horizon (relatively minor ones, but they add up).
Theoretically, the NDP government’s decision to annually raise the carbon tax and to no longer make it revenue “neutral” (perhaps the single biggest move in the entire budget update) may provide new money to start paying for these programs.
But that won’t happen for several years at least.
Until then, I expect the Green Party to continue to claim they are responsible for not allowing that expensive day care plan and renter rebate scheme to ever come to reality (although Green MLA Sonia Furstenau has said she wouldn’t vote against either them if they are eventually in a bill).
But the political reality is something far more common and traditional: the sitting government simply doesn’t have the money to pay for those programs.
And no amount of political rhetoric flowing from the Greens changes that, but it does add to the impression that there is a bunch of horse trading going on in a minority government.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
