The B.C. NDP always a faces a tough, uphill struggle to get elected to government in this province, and some moves by the federal wing of the NDP this past weekend may make that hill even steeper.
Dumping Thomas Mulcair as federal leader necessitates a leadership race. The good news for the B.C. NDP is that the vote won't happen for two years, but the bad news is that a leadership race sucks resources, money and energy out of other party activities.
By next spring, when the next provincial election will occur, the federal race should just be starting to get into gear. The B.C. NDP is already struggling financially, and any rival for fundraising -- such as a leadership race -- is not what the party needs.
Still, the actual vote being such a long ways off should mitigate much of the damage.
What may have greater implications for the B.C. NDP, however, was the federal NDP's decision to come closer -- through an internal party debate -- to embracing the controversial and radical "Leap Manifesto", a far-left movement aimed at combating climate change, blocking trade deals and raising taxes.
I can only imagine the B.C. Liberals are salivating over the prospect of tying the federal NDP's courtship of the Leap Manifesto to the B.C. NDP's tail, and stepping back to gleefully watch the provincial party's furious attempts to separate itself from all the controversy that may result from the positions called for by the Leap folks.
Of course the B.C. Liberals will exaggerate the actual linkage between the NDP and the Leap Manifesto, but that's politics. The NDP has opened the door here.
Then again, it's entirely possible many members of the B.C. NDP will be just as interested in bringing the Leap Manifesto into the party to stir up a debate. The Leap folks, for example, want to immediately halt the building of all oil pipelines and to quickly -- very quickly - transition the economy away from fossil fuels.
The anti-pipeline stance seems fairly close to the one held by B.C. NDP, which opposes both the Enbridge pipeline and the proposed twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline.
Still, as someone who has known and covered NDP leader John Horgan for almost 20 years, I can't imagine him leading a political party that wants anything to do with the Leap Manifesto.
Historically, Horgan is from the pro-resource development side of the NDP, the one championed by people he was close to in government: ex-premiers Glen Clark and Dan Miller. It was those two who, more than anyone before or since, took measures to allow the B.C. oil and gas sector to flourish.
So it seems inconceivable that he would entertain many of the policies espoused by the Leap Manifesto.
Nevertheless, all this plays to the B.C. Liberals' strategy of portraying the B.C. NDP as the "party of No", one that opposes all kinds of industrial development and therefore -- or so the B.C. Liberals argue -- against job creation.
Last week provided another example of how the NDP is potentially vulnerable on this. Union leaders of several building trades unions attended a government news conference to announce the latest contracts let on the Site C dam project, lending their support and decrying the NDP's opposition to the dam.
Also now in the B.C. Liberal arsenal are the angry comments from another NDP leader: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley (soon to be the only elected NDP premier in the country), who is furious about the federal NDP's de facto support for something that would greatly hurt her province's economy.
So the party, at various levels, is watching some longtime alliances splinter, and it goes beyond the Alberta NDP being on the outs with everyone else. The federal party is taking a significant shift to the left, which will undoubtedly have some kind of impact on the B.C. wing of the party, which has yet to reveal much of its eventual election platform.
A leadership race will likely focus the party on these shifts, and that has great potential to become very divisive.
The NDP has always been good at creating internal divisions. We shall soon see whether they help sabotage the party's election chances here.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
