The 2024 provincial election restored British Columbia’s decades-long political balance. The BC Liberals’ demise, stemming from a disastrous rebrand and their leader’s August campaign abandonment, left the “free enterprise coalition” with a single choice in all 93 constituencies: The Conservative Party of B.C.
Since the BC Conservatives’ near-victory last October, the political landscape has shifted. Former BC Liberals, disenchanted with the BC Conservatives, now have the newly formed Centre BC party as an option. Additionally, three MLAs elected under the BC Conservative banner – Dallas Brodie, Jordan Kealy and Tara Armstrong – exited their party caucus after a public disagreement on Indigenous issues. Recent testing of public perception showed little enthusiasm for these new movements: 16 per cent of British Columbians are undecided on party support, a proportion rising to 18 per cent among voters aged 55 and over.
The emergence of new parties has not altered the provincial status quo. Forty-three per cent of decided voters support the governing BC NDP, while 42 per cent back the BC Conservatives. The BC Green Party, lacking a full-time leader, is a distant third at eight per cent, followed by Centre BC at two per cent. When the online survey was conducted June 7-9, a prospective party with Brodie, Kealy and Armstrong had support of one per cent. Three per cent of decided voters would choose other parties or independent candidates.
The One B.C. party with just Brodie and Armstrong, which emerged Thursday after the survey was conducted, is unlikely to change these numbers much.
While a six-per-cent shift away from the BC NDP, Conservatives, and Greens might seem minor, the two main parties were separated by only two percentage points—just over 33,000 votes—in October.
Among decided voters, the BC NDP maintains its advantage over the BC Conservatives in traditional strongholds like Metro Vancouver (47 per cent to 41 per cent) and Vancouver Island (43 per cent to 34 per cent). Southern B.C. shows a tie at 43 per cent for each party. The BC Conservatives are reaching BC Liberal-era support in the Fraser Valley (53 per cent to 34 per cent) and Northern B.C. (52 per cent to 29 per cent).
The “vote consideration” question highlights the challenge for centre-right voters. A majority of British Columbians (54 per cent, up one point) would “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting their BC NDP candidate. The BC Conservatives stand at 47 per cent (up two points), with lower numbers for the BC Greens (33 per cent, down six points), Centre BC (19 per cent) and a presumed party of former BC Conservatives (14 per cent).
It would be easy to dismiss Centre BC at this stage, but we must remember that there was another party which, in February 2023, sat at two per cent in voting intention across British Columbia. Fifteen months later, that party won 44 of the 93 seats in the legislative assembly.
Premier David Eby’s approval rating (56 per cent, up one point) remains higher than official Opposition Leader John Rustad’s (37 per cent, down three points). Interim BC Green leader Jeremy Valeriote has 27 per cent approval (down seven points), while Centre BC’s Karin Kirkpatrick sits at 16 per cent, remaining unknown to 53 per cent of British Columbians.
Rustad has not emerged as a premier-in-waiting. His strong disapproval stands at 27 per cent provincially, rising to 37 per cent among those aged 55 and over.
Housing, homelessness and poverty remain the top issue for 34 per cent, followed by the economy and jobs (22 per cent), health care (21 per cent), and crime and public safety (six per cent). Notably, among voters aged 55 and over—a group that favoured Eby last year—health-care concerns have risen by seven points to 34 per cent. Should the BC Conservatives persuasively connect on this issue, their and their leader’s fortunes could shift.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from June 7-9, 2025, among 803 adults in B.C. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in B.C. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
