Even though final results from B.C.’s election won’t be announced for a couple more weeks, a Simon Fraser University professor is weighing in on what a minority government would look like.
Lindsay Meredith, part of SFU’s Beedie School of Business and an expert in political strategy and marketing, called Green party leader Andrew Weaver the “kingmaker” should the current 43-41-3 seat ratio stand between the Liberals, NDP and Greens, respectively.
With three seats in the legislature, the Greens hold the balance of power.
So what will Weaver do with that power?
“He can either play a short game and roll with the minority government, or he can play a long game and form a coalition,” said Meredith.
If the former happens, the chances of a minority government lasting are slim, with most of them failing within 18 months, he noted.
“Coalitions, I don’t think they can last a whole hell of a lot longer either. ... If he forms a coalition and it comes off the tracks downstream, he’ll get blamed for being part of it,” explained Meredith. “If he plays the short game, he doesn’t have the stability of a coalition, but he does have this huge clout and bargaining power where he can hold the gun to both the NDP and the Liberals and say, ‘You know, it’s a good idea if you make me happy. Because if you don’t, I’m going to screw you up.’”
One contentious issue among the parties has been B.C.’s energy projects, including the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline, scheduled to begin construction this September. The B.C. Liberals have said the company has met their five conditions for “the path to yes.” The Greens have opposed the project, while the NDP has teeter-tottered but has said it’s against it.
“That’s going to be interesting. If the Greens cave in on that and go along with them (the Liberals), that’s not going to help Weaver all that much,” said Meredith, suggesting going against his anti-pipeline voters’ beliefs would not help him at the polls next time.
The SFU prof noted with a minority government, Weaver (or Horgan) could “make a big production” on the Kinder Morgan file, and ask for more studies to be conducted, looking at such things like the Water Act or Haida Gwaii issues.
But how did B.C. end up with a potential minority government?
It was “a comedy of errors,” said Meredith.
Christy Clark took for granted the aging population in the Metro Vancouver ridings, where she could have picked up more seats if she made health care a bigger priority, he said.
The New Democrats took Burnaby’s four ridings, in part, because B.C. NDP leader John Horgan promised a new hospital, added Meredith.
“The thing’s prehistoric, for god’s sake. ... The Liberals shouldn’t have been so clumsy to miss it. Either way, I don’t give the NDP huge rewards here. They (the NDP) should have been pounding away on that health care thing from day one and got all those older voters onside,” he said. “If they’re the ones who vote and they’re the ones who suffer most because of poor health care, gosh, if I was a politician, I’d make damn sure I buttered that bread.”
Meredith also said the Liberals underestimated Surrey, where the NDP took six of the nine ridings, and where bridge tolls and a lack of transportation were front-and-centre issues.
“All they had to do was address that a year and a half ago when they had a chance,” he said.
Absentee ballots (176,104 provincewide) won’t be counted until at least May 22, according to Elections B.C.
The riding that could push the Liberals to a majority is Courtenay-Comox, where preliminary results show a nine-vote difference between the NDP’s Ronna-Rae Leonard (leading) and the Liberals’ Jim Benninger.
If final results favour a Liberal majority, Meredith said MLAs can’t be MIA.
“They have to make sure nobody stays home sick in bed on a key vote; they’ve got to make sure they show up every bloody day,” he said. “If that swing (riding) goes Liberal, a lot of this stuff disappears. On the other hand, I don’t think the battle bruises will. I think the Liberals are truly shaken by what happened.”
Clark will continue as premier until the dust settles.
