"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" is the opening line of Charles Dickens's novel about the French Revolution, A Tale of Two Cities.
The great novelist might well have been writing about retail sales forecasts for the upcoming Christmas season.
Stores have been fighting for the shoppers' dollar all year. The challenging economy, cross-border shopping, increasing competition from foreign chains, the Internet - all have made life difficult for local retailers, who have been creative in their efforts to stay afloat.
And it isn't going to get any easier as the busy Christmas season approaches.
Most retail pundits are predicting Christmas spending will be similar to last year - in other words, the pie will stay about the same size.
But they also expect the pie to be split somewhat differently from last year, with those stores that have been successful all year continuing to get a bigger slice.
These winners, who seem to be in the midst of "the best of times", range from luxury high-end outlets like the amazinglysuccessful Apple store, to lower-end price-conscious ones like WalMart.
The downside, of course, is that the struggling stores will get less of the pie. Those retailers that have been in difficulties all year are keeping their fingers crossed and are hoping, like Mr. Micawber in another Dickens classic, David Copperfield, that "something will turn up" in time for Christmas. It might be a forlorn hope for some, because at least half a dozen householdname stores that you see in many shopping centres are operating under bankruptcy protection.
For them it looks like "the worst of times". Many of these stores have been around for years, and were successful in the past. But times are different now - especially in the everevolving fast-moving retail industry where public tastes are fickle - and all too often unsuccessful retailers simply haven't caught up with the times, and are still relying on what worked in the past instead of trying something new.
But if they've seen fewer customers come through their doors in spring, summer and fall, why should winter be any different? Expect to see some disappear in the new year.
There's no doubt it is tough for many retailers. How can small to mid-size stores compete with the giants who have enormous buying power and the efficiencies of scale? Some of them can't. But in order to have a chance, they need to focus on what has changed in the marketplace.
For example, I see a healthy future for the small boutique type of store that offers great service, has knowledgeable staff, and carries specialty products that people want. Successful retailers today must also understand and make use of social media - especially if their customers are younger - and use Facebook, Twitter and similar sites to complement a great web page.
And there are encouraging signs. New stores are opening in just about every shopping centre (more than half a dozen new retailers, some of them new to Canada, have opened at Metropolis alone this fall) and that is always exciting for customers. The same is true elsewhere. At Guildford, for example, an expanded WalMart is opening shortly, and will soon be followed by a $280 million renovation. WalMart is also in the midst of a huge expansion at Lougheed Town Centre.
Watch for more newcomers: British High Street icon Topshop, for example, already has a foothold with some of its popular cheap-chic fashions at the Bay and plans as many as 50 stores in Canada. Then there's Target, Kohls, Marshalls and more from the U.S.
Change is inevitable. And in a retail environment that's getting tougher by the day, only
those stores that pay close attention to what their customers want will survive the challenge of increasing competition.
Doug MacDougall is the general manager of Metropolis at Metrotown.
