After engaging in what has effectively been some shadowboxing the past year, the NDP and the B.C. Liberals are about to begin the main bout as the legislature has resumed sitting.
The last two sessions – the fall of 2017 and last spring – were characterized chiefly by the two parties trying to figure out their respective new roles, which for almost all concerned was a completely new experience.
The B.C. Liberals had not been in Opposition for 16 years, and their rustiness shone brightly. It took months for many of their members to even accept the election outcome as a legitimate one and to realize the reality of the situation.
The NDP had not been in government for the same amount of time, but they seemed to have a more seamless transition into power. Still, because they were new at this role, they could be forgiven for the odd stumble. And so the honeymoon period was an extended one.
But the warm-up is now over, and as a result, I suspect this fall session will be loud, feisty and occasionally even nasty at times.
The B.C. Liberals have resolved their leadership issue by choosing Andrew Wilkinson to replace Christy Clark, and Wilkinson will be under pressure to raise his profile and demonstrate he can match Premier John Horgan stride for stride on all kinds of issues.
Look for Wilkinson to shake things up a bit in Question Period and let newer MLAs to step up and be the A Team when it comes to grilling NDP cabinet ministers. Rookie MLAs such as Peter Milobar, Jas Johal, Ellis Ross and Ian Paton may get more face time.
Some longtime veterans will fade into the background, although I bet former cabinet ministers like Mary Polak (who is the Opposition House Leader) and Shirley Bond will still play key roles.
The B.C. Liberals have to rebrand themselves, largely through new political personalities emerging to replace old ones. In addition, the caucus has to be more proactive in creating sticky situations for the NDP government to muddle through.
That means generating more media coverage that puts the government on the defensive as much as possible. During the NDP’s first year in power, that did not happen much.
The tiny Green caucus will likely continue to play a mostly minor role during this session, although as I pointed out here two weeks ago they could influence what shape the speculation housing tax ultimately take.
And they may make some noise if, as expected, the LNG Canada project gets the go-ahead. However, they can’t deploy their nuclear option on this issue – causing the government to fall – until next spring’s budget vote at the earliest.
On the governing side, things should be a little tougher as the last election fades from view. Blaming everything on the B.C. Liberals can only take the NDP so far.
Certain issues will undoubtedly creep into view, and they can turn into political hot potatoes very quickly. Things like cannabis legalization, rising ICBC rates, the ongoing housing crisis, a looming LNG industry, the referendum on electoral reform, and the Trans Mountain pipeline will likely dominate the fall session, and some of them will be challenging files to manage.
At some point, health waiting lists and higher car insurance will soon be tied to the NDP, not to the departed B.C. Liberals.
Top-flight cabinet ministers like Attorney-General David Eby, Health Minister Adrian Dix, Solicitor General Mike Farnworth, Finance Minister Carole James and Education Minister Rob Fleming will continue to dominate, but they will likely face a tougher time of it this fall.
Then there is the premier.
Some folks have been waiting for the “old” John Horgan to emerge. The guy who was combative, defensiv, and willing to lash out at a moment’s notice.
I think that guy is gone for good.
The moment the last election campaign began, the old Horgan disappeared, and even though this fall legislative session may be bruising at times, don’t expect him to return.
Instead, Horgan will continue his Happy Warrior approach – even if the B.C. Liberals step up their game in the two months that lie ahead in the house.
Keith Baldrey is chief political correspondent for Global BC.
