Christy Clark’s sudden and unexpected resignation as both party leader and MLA gives the B.C. Liberals an early chance at renewal and rebranding, but it also strengthens the NDP’s grip on power.
Just a few hours after her announcement, Clark told me over the phone that her quitting was partly aimed at “shocking” her party into renewal. She says the B.C. Liberals “need to come to grips with the new reality” that sees them moving into Opposition, and her dramatic departure will help to hasten that. She also acknowledged that the longer the NDP remained in government and the B.C. Liberals were stuck in Opposition, the more perilous her hold on the leadership reins would become.
The proverbial knives would come out and become sharper over time. And so, she reasoned, why put the party through an inevitable, messy, internal fight that could tear the free enterprise coalition apart?
Her reasoning appears to be sound, but it is unusual coming from a politician who has been hyper-competitive for so long, and a scrappy street fighter at that. Still, her forward-looking analysis will likely serve her party well.
Of course, it will also greatly help the fledgling NDP government, at least in the short-term. Its precarious one-seat majority will now become a much more comfortable two-seat advantage. Premier John Horgan won’t be obligated to call a byelection to fill Clark’s soon-to-be-vacant Kelowna West seat for six months, and the vote would not have to be held until late February. This means the NDP could much more easily pass a couple of confidence votes (a budget this fall and Throne Speech early next year) before the seat is filled again (almost certainly by the B.C. Liberals, since historically it is one of the party’s strongest seats).
Clark had concluded even if she stayed on as leader, the government could survive well more than a year, which was time enough for the seeds of any discontent over her leadership to sprout into public view.
Now it looks like the government is actually safe from falling until the spring of 2019, and perhaps even longer, especially if any other veteran sitting B.C. Liberal MLAs decided to follow suit and decide they want nothing to do with the frustrating and often hapless task of sitting in Opposition.
After all, will longtime cabinet ministers such as Shirley Bond, Rich Coleman, Mike de Jong, Mary Polak and Linda Reid really stick it out for what could be four long years? The early resignation of just one of them could keep this government going for longer than many had assumed.
Horgan’s ace in the hole could be that six months he can use up before calling any more byelections, should the need for one (or more) arise.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
