It is telling that the words “Kinder Morgan” and “pipeline” were not contained in this week’s throne speech, an indication perhaps that the B.C. NDP government is trying to cool down emotions on the pipeline issue.
In fact, it wasn’t until the very end of a long speech that bitumen – the Alberta oil sands product that flows through the Kinder Morgan pipeline – was even mentioned, and even then the speech said the government was simply “considering new protections” to improve the ability to respond to bitumen spills. No mention of the contentious idea of creating a new regulation to control how much bitumen actually flows in the pipe. No mention of the pipeline itself.
A lot of the speech was spent addressing housing and child care, and other issues – such as affordability, inequality, health care, reconciliation, infrastructure, public safety, education and mental health – were all devoted significant portions of the speech.
The first reference to bitumen was the seventh-to-last paragraph, an indication perhaps of the B.C. NDP not wanting to further strain relations with the Alberta NDP government. After vowing to use “every tool in the toolbox” to stop the Kinder Morgan expansion, the NDP government hit upon a novel idea: come up with regulations that would control the pipeline flow.
In response, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley is blocking the importation of B.C. wine into her province, and she has dropped strong hints at bringing in even more sanctions against B.C.
It’s hard to see how B.C. wins this battle from a legal standpoint. The federal government has clear constitutional powers, and any attempt by the B.C. government to essentially stop a federally approved pipeline from operating would likely be quickly deemed unconstitutional by any court.
Of course, legalities are one thing. Politics is quite another, and this pipeline war is mostly about politics.
Political necessity requires Notley to take a very aggressive and determined stand when it comes to sticking up for her province’s number 1 industry and the provincial economy. She has to fend off United Conservative leader Jason Kenney, who wants to take even tougher sanctions against B.C.
Horgan’s position is more nuanced. He must appease the sizeable environmental base of his party, but, at the same time, he cannot alienate the business community.
The real opposition will eventually move from the parliamentary stage to the extra-parliamentary one: the protest blockades and massive acts of civil disobedience will dwarf anything contemplated by the NDP government. And those protests may ultimately determine the fate of the pipeline. Either the Trudeau government will steel itself and push the pipeline through, or Kinder Morgan tires of all the delays and protests and simply walks away.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global TV.
