Is Canada about to undergo a transformation that weakens the central federal government and strengthens individual provinces?
That scenario may well occur if the B.C. government wins the reference case it put in front of the B.C. Court of Appeal. In it, the B.C. NDP government wants the court to rule on whether or not it can regulate heavy oil shipments that arrive from another province.
If the court – it will likely be up to the Supreme Court of Canada for a final judgment – sides with B.C., it fundamentally alters the balance of power in the country. Provinces would then have the power to block any substance or commodity and any project from coming within its boundaries, no matter how many times the federal government may have ruled otherwise.
It would be a landmark ruling, although constitutional experts give B.C. little chance of winning its argument.
Alberta Premier Rachel Notley has said a legal victory by the B.C. government would be an economic disaster for Canada.
“The powers that they are seeking through this court reference are a recipe for economic gridlock,” Notley said, noting other provinces could claim similar powers and tie up the flow of goods.
B.C. has dismissed such concerns as overblown rhetoric and insists this controversy is simply about a province trying to protect its coastline from possible environmental destruction.
Still, more than one observer has noted B.C. is doing nothing about the 26 million barrels of bitumen that already flow each year through B.C. via pipelines and railcars.
A bitumen spill is a bitumen spill is a bitumen spill. Yet B.C. apparently thinks such a spill that occurs with the existing pipeline is a risk worth taking.
Further muddying this potential breakdown of federalism is the Saskatchewan government, which has launched its own reference case challenging the federal government’s power to impose a carbon tax on the province. This move came after Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe threatened to follow Alberta’s lead and turn off the oil taps to B.C.
No doubt cheering both provinces on are Quebeckers who would love to see a weakened central federal government.
The pipeline issue is turning provinces against each other, and against the federal government. Who knows what effect this critical impasse will have on Confederation, and whether it will lead to a balkanization of the country.
Opposing the Trans Mountain pipeline is either the biggest example of NIMBYism we have ever seen in this country, or it is a passionate defence of environmental values.
Depending on the outcome, the federal government will come out of this imbroglio stronger than ever, or forever weakened.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
