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Opinion: This federal election campaign is going to get nasty fast

Judging from the intense media coverage and savage partisan commentary flowing from the SNC-Lavalin scandal, you would think the federal Liberals are politically dead as a doornail.
Andrew Scheer, Justin Trudeau
With their parties in a dead heat in the polls, Andrew Scheer and Justin Trudeau will likely become the focus of all their opponents' attention.

Judging from the intense media coverage and savage partisan commentary flowing from the SNC-Lavalin scandal, you would think the federal Liberals are politically dead as a doornail.

The issue has been front and centre for months, dominating newspaper front pages and national newscasts. The national political arena has been obsessed with it.

However, evidence emerged last week that suggests that, as has been the case with so many other “scandals” at both the federal and provincial levels, the general public does not attach as much importance to them as many may think.

Three veteran, experienced and credible polling companies – Ipsos, Nanos and Abacus – all took national polls after the rather damning report by the federal ethics commissioner was made public.

Although the report skewered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government for their handling of the SNC-Lavalin prosecution and their treatment of former attorney-general Jody Wilson-Raybould, each poll produced a similar result.

They all showed public opinion had not moved at all, and that the Liberals and Conservatives were still in a dead heat for the lead amongst voters.

People have a reason to be skeptical of polling these days, but when three of the top polling companies essentially agree on such a key issue it is worth taking notice.

There is a lesson in all this, and it is this: do not assume we know what the key issue or issues will be in an election that will not be held for two months.

For now, it is impossible to say what issue will sway the most voters.

Certainly, if news media coverage is anything to go by (particularly central Canadian media coverage) then the SNC-Lavalin affair should be the dominant issue. However, it is clearly not (at least for now), which suggests using media coverage as a barometer to gauge public opinion might not be the best idea.

I have longed subscribed to the view that political leaders and their images and personalities – and not so much single issues, except in the odd occasion -- play an outsized role when it comes to shaping voting behavior. So issues aside, that’s why I think we’re going to see a nasty, vicious election campaign that focuses less on issues and more on the perceived shortcomings – or worse – of the leaders, particularly the two frontrunners.

The Conservatives under Andrew Scheer will surely try to paint Trudeau as an unethical prime minister who lacks a moral compass, and they will use the SNC-Lavalin issue as the main battering ram. Now that he has a track record in office, the Conservatives have a variety of targets to choose from that were not available to them in the 2015 election.

The Liberals, for their part, will try to portray Scheer as a weak leader beholden to unacceptable views on immigration, gay marriage and other social conservative issues.  They will also try to tie Scheer to unpopular Ontario premier Doug Ford as often as possible.

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh and Green Party leader Elizabeth May will get far less attention from their opponents since neither of them has a chance of becoming prime minister.

Nevertheless, expect the NDP and the Greens to eventually spend a lot of time in the campaign attacking each other, since both are likely going to be fighting over the same ridings in B.C. and parts of the Atlantic.

The NDP may have to turn their guns on the Greens in ways never seen before if they detect evidence the Greens are actually posing a real threat in places like Vancouver Island, where the NDP currently hold five of its seven seats.

There is a good chance all this expected negativity might lower voter turnout, as voters may literally become turned off by all the noise.

Oh, issues like tax breaks, fighting climate change, ethical government, pipelines, health care, pharmacare and others will get their share of attention.

But it’s too early to say if any of those issues will become dominant.

Instead, it is safer to predict that a nasty fight is looming and it may be not so much about “issues” as about personalities and images.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.