It’s a marriage of necessity, there’s no question about it. But even arranged marriages can often weather storms – even political storms – when the future of both parties is at risk.
As the B.C. NDP and B.C. Greens announced that they were forming a coalition of sorts, oddsmakers were probably already giving the arrangement low odds. But it’s clear there’s a lot of motivation for both the NDP and Greens to make this relationship work.
Andrew Weaver has pledged to support the NDP on a confidence vote. That effectively means that the NDP have their hands on the steering wheel, even if Weaver has his foot on the gas.
A lot rests on Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon. If John Horgan asks Guichon to let him form the government, with the Greens’ three seats he would control 44 votes versus the Liberals’ 43 seats. But the NDP, if it formed a government, would have to lose one of those seats to a speaker of the house.
That would pretty much make it a tie situation, with the speaker forced to vote to break up any ties.
It’s a precarious hold on power in the best of circumstances.
And Christy Clark may convince Guichon to let her stay and fight to save her position. Perhaps she can woo a disaffected NDPer over to her side? That would be a long shot, to say the least.
The larger question is, who wants to pull the election switch first?
If the NDP and Greens hold a non-confidence vote and Guichon says they have to go to the polls again, can they count on keeping and expanding their seats?
It’s a gamble.
And, to be sure, voters have no appetite for another campaign so soon. And how would the parties finance another expensive campaign so soon after the last one? With all the promises made about cleaning up fundraising and donations, it would seem to be risky.
We suspect Horgan and Weaver will take a bit of a honeymoon period to solidify their support and, if possible, wait until the fall to make a move. And Clark? Will she make a stand, or is she brushing up her resumé? Stay tuned.
